Who We Are, How We Live, What We Do, How We Rank

How many San Franciscans:

Trace their ancestry from China, Ireland, Mexico or the Philippines?

Are children under 5? Speak Spanish at home? Have their cars stolen?

Are heterosexual or gay? Divorced? Live alone? Give birth each year?

Vote Libertarian? Earn over $200,000/year? Have graduate degrees?

There is no city in the world quite like San Francisco – and here are some of the details.

For analyses of the city’s real estate market, please see links at bottom of newsletter.
]]> http://gregg-gorski.com/blog/who-in-san-francisco-an-unusual-demographic-analysis/feed/ 0 http://gregg-gorski.com/testimonials/charlie-klinedinst-developer/ http://gregg-gorski.com/testimonials/charlie-klinedinst-developer/#comments Wed, 15 Feb 2012 00:25:33 +0000 Jason Urso http://gregg-gorski.com/?p=991 “We had a small residential development on Hotaling Place in the financial district of San Francisco. Jason Gorski and Suzanne Gregg of Paragon worked with us to market and sell the units. They did a great job and I would use them again. They provided excellent advice, great contacts, area knowledge, and professional support.”

www.urbanstyleinjacksonsquare.com

25 Hotaling is a stunning conversation of a historic brick building, blending period details with modern luxurious finishes. Located in the highly desirable and infamous neighborhood of San Francisco’s Barbary Coast. The area is adorned with tree-lined streets, vintage architecture and is home to many of San Francisco’s finest restaurants, shops and art galleries.

- 1 Bedroom, 1 Bath

- Transamerica Pyramid Views

- Recessed Lighting

- Exposed Brick

- Brazilian Teak Hardwood Floors

- Designer Custom Kitchen Cabinetry

- Professional Stainless Steel Appliances, Wolf, Subzero, Bosch and Broan

- Gas Cook Top, Vented Hoods

- Granite and Marble Countertops

- Limestone Tile Baths & Full Dryers, Video Security

- Individual HVAC, Washer & Dryer, Video Security

- Deeded Storage

- Common Roof Top View Terrace

January 2012 Update by the Paragon Real Estate Group

It seems to be part of the human condition that financial and real estate markets go in cycles. What’s interesting is that when the cycle is on the upswing or a bubble is inflating, how vociferous the opinions are that the upswing will never end; and how after the crash, how many then insist, often with great virulence, that the markets will never improve again in our lifetimes. We see variations of forecasting certitude constantly from those emotionally or financially invested in a certain viewpoint, not to mention bloggers and media with infinite white space to fill – and, of course, real estate agents often do this as well. However, most of the time, one must simply wait and see how the cycles turn in their own time and circumstances.

All this leads to our point: absent some new natural or economic disaster – which is certainly possible – it appears in retrospect that San Francisco real estate began turning the corner on the latest down cycle in 2011. Two and a half years following the financial markets crash, the dynamics in the city started to change early last year: prices seemed to have bottomed out and stabilized, Bay Area and city economic conditions started to improve, interest rates hit new lows while SF rents increased, and the financials of home buying suddenly made more sense than they had in many years.

Indeed in 2011, the biggest story regarding the SF homes market was the drastic lack of inventory – typically 30-40% below the previous year – which was inadequate to satisfy surging buyer demand. Historically, according to the laws of supply and demand, this begins to put upward pressure on prices – which is what we’ve been beginning to see in some of our neighborhoods.

It should be noted that San Francisco often behaves differently than other markets and recovers more quickly, and also that within the city itself, the markets in different neighborhoods can move at different speeds or even, for periods of time, in different directions. There is a link at the bottom of the newsletter to far more detailed analyses of the SF market by neighborhood, property type and bedroom count. There are also definitions and caveats regarding the statistics used below.

All data is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and omissions and is not warranted. These charts do not include sales not reported to MLS, such as occur in some new-development projects. How any statistic relates to the value of any specific property is unknown without further analysis.

2011 Unit Sales: the number of sales as reported to MLS climbed about 7% in 2011 from 2010, bouncing back from the trough of 2009, though still far below the peak years.  All SF property types saw increases in sales. However, if inventory had not been so drastically low all year long, the increase in unit sales would certainly have been much greater.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: If Case-Shiller did an Index just for the city of San Francisco itself, instead of the 5-county “Metro Area,” we believe it would indicate a significantly greater recovery than indicated in this chart. San Francisco is strongly outperforming the markets in the other counties included in their local Index. (And SF itself only makes up a small percentage of that Index.) For a more detailed explanation of the S&P Case-Shiller Index:
http://www.paragon-re.com/postings/Case_Shiller_San_Francisco_MSA.html

 Average Dollar per Square Foot: Looking at the last 6 quarters, we see a very gradual increase from mid- 2010 of average-dollar-per-square-foot values for SF houses of $750,000 and above, except for the hiccup which occurred during the 3^rd quarter of 2011 when the European debt crisis and the U.S. debt limit boondoggle greatly increased financial anxieties. The latest quarter saw the highest value, by a tad, since 2008. This chart also shows how the market is divided between the lower-priced housing segment (for SF) hard hit by distress sales and the mid-to-high priced segment which has been little affected by distress sales. Remember that quarterly fluctuations of average and median figures are not particularly meaningful – what are important are consistent longer term trends.

Percentage of Homes Accepting Offers: The main 3 residential property types in the city have been hitting their highest percentages in recent memory for listings going into contract (accepting offers). This is a very clear graphic of the dynamic of very strong buyer demand meeting a very low inventory of homes available to purchase. The dip in the third quarter was, as mentioned, probably due to the burst of financial markets anxieties that occurred over the summer.

Sales Price to List Price and Days on Market: This chart shows the enormous difference that proper pricing, preparation and marketing make in achieving the highest sales price in the lowest amount of time. Most of the homes that do sell actually accept offers relatively quickly at very close to, or even a little over, the list price. About half as many sell after price reductions, with big discounts on list price and large delays in closing the sale. And then, even in a market of strong buyer demand, about a third of listings expire or are withdrawn without selling, typically due to being perceived as overpriced.

Months-Supply-of-Inventory (MSI): MSI measures how long it would take to sell the entire inventory of homes currently for sale, at existing market-activity rates. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to supply: We don’t recall ever seeing overall MSI rates this low. As a comparison, the MSI in the United States as a whole right now is 7 months. In certain SF market segments, the MSI is down to 1.5 months or lower. In the 4^th quarter, there was a story of one listing, admitted egregiously underpriced, receiving 26 offers – which gives an idea of the level of unsatisfied demand in some neighborhoods.

Homes for Sale: This chart tracks the number of homes listed as available on MLS on the last day of each month. It is true that inventory always plunges during the holidays and then starts to recover in January, but throughout 2011 the number of homes available to purchase in any given month has been far below the levels of previous years. And if one factors in the huge decline over the last few years in new-development condos on the market, it looks even worse. Inadequate to buyer demand, this has led to an increase in multiple offers and buyer stress — and increasing values in some of the city’s neighborhoods.

Luxury Home Sales by Neighborhood: Homes selling for $1,500,000 and above make up about 10% of San Francisco’s sales and this is a snapshot of where they occurred by neighborhood and property type. For houses, the biggest prices still come in the Pacific/ Presidio Heights area, where one mansion on Broadway sold for $29,500,000. For condos, the highest dollar-per-square-foot figures are found in Russian Hill and South Beach for luxury units with astounding views: a penthouse in the St. Regis in South Beach/ Yerba Buena sold for $28,000,000. But in number of sales, the central Noe Valley/ Castro/ Cole Valley district has grown immensely over the past 10 years and is now firmly established for a particular type of affluent buyer, many of whom want easier access to Silicon Valley.

SF Distress Home Sales: As a percentage of sales, distress home sales peaked in January 2011; overall, they made up about 20% of total unit sales last year, but were largely clustered in certain neighborhoods, often in the less affluent areas of the city, and in the lower price ranges. To a large degree, they have not impacted values in many of the city’s more affluent central and northern districts. As seen here, the number of such listings has been markedly declining in 2011. Compared to other areas of the Bay Area, state and country, SF has been relatively unaffected by foreclosures, and so far the much dreaded “shadow inventory” of foreclosed-upon home listings has never arrived in the city.

Sales by Price Range: The largest percentage of SF home sales occurs in the $500,000 to $750,000 range. One of the biggest changes over the past few years has been the enormous growth in unit sales in the under-$500,000 price segment, much of which has been driven by distress sales. Even from 2010 to 2011, the lower end price segment has increased as a percentage of sales – and this continues to impact overall median sales price, which is simply that price at which half the homes sold for more and half for less.

Days on Market: This chart shows the large difference in how long it takes to sell distress homes as compared to regular homes (about a month longer); the effect that pricing, preparing and marketing the home correctly can make in days on market (over two months); and the different speeds of sale for the 3 main residential property types. (Distress sales are not broken out for TICs, because they have been relatively unaffected by foreclosures.) General appeal homes that are effectively priced, presented and marketed often receive offers within 2-3 weeks of coming on market.

How Buyers Find the Homes They Purchase: A simple graphic of how things have changed in real estate buying and marketing in the past 10 years. An effective marketing plan has to include very comprehensive components of high-quality online marketing and broker-to-broker marketing – this is what reaches by far the most buyers. Professionally taken real estate photos are now an absolute necessity since they are how most buyers and agents will first see and evaluate your home. (All Paragon listings are photographed by professional real estate photographers.) Effective neighborhood marketing and open houses come next. The value of print advertising in newspapers and real estate magazines has become negligible.

Mortgage Interest Rates: Between the decline in prices since 2007-2008 and the decline in interest rates, the monthly cost of owning the same home has generally declined 30-40% in San Francisco over the past 4-5 years. (Chart below is from Bankrate.com.) Conversely, SF apartment rents have been significantly increasing lately (especially due to the growth of high-tech employment). One of the standard ways economists evaluate whether a real estate market is correctly priced or not is by comparing the cost of renting vs. the cost of owning the same home. This equation has gone through a huge change since 2008. If you’d like to explore your own financial rent vs. own scenarios: http://www.paragon-re.com/Calculators/default.aspx

www.EleganceOnJackson.com

Sophisticated Pacific Heights 3 bedroom, 2 bath condominium is located on the top floor of an elegant San Francisco 1920’s Edwardian building. This light filled remodeled home features spacious formal living spaces, a wood burning fireplace, hardwood floors, recessed lighting, built-in cabinetry and stunning period details.  The chefs kitchen is equipped with S/S appliances and include Subzero refrigerator, Viking range, dishwasher and temperature controlled wine storage.  The rear bedrooms capture stunning views to the south and the master bedroom suite features a custom built in closet, en-suite bath with radiant heat floors, steam shower, designer lighting and stone tile. One car parking and private storage room are deeded.  This prime Pacific Heights location is within walking distance to Alta Vista Park, posh Sacramento St boutiques and bistros and vibrant upper Fillmore St neighborhood.

Offered at: $1,189,000

3 Bedrooms Plus Sunroom and Finished Bonus Room
2.5 Baths
As per Tax Records, Home is Approx. 2,050 Sq. Ft. on 3000 Sq. Ft. lot (25×120)
One car garage with Laundry and Storage

Description
This pristine home is a classic example of 1915 Edwardian architecture, located in the heart of the Richmond District. The large foyer leads you into a spacious living room with wood burning fireplace, refinished hardwood floors, and well preserved period detailing. Adjacent is the formal dining room with a built in buffet cabinet, original to the home. An updated kitchen is finished with Caesar Stone, porcelain floor tile, and stainless steel appliances. Also on this main living level is a spacious sunroom that can be used as a home office or breakfast room, half bath, and mud room, that directly opens up to a large deck. Upstairs, you will find a master suite, full bathroom with designer finishes, two more spacious bedrooms, another full bathroom and lavatory. Below the house is a large garage with laundry, ample storage, and a bonus room that leads out to the rear stone patio. All situated on an oversized lot with large,south-facing garden.
Please visit: www.531-18thAve.com

Offered at: $1,645,000

This spectacular, luxury view home is located in the highly sought after neighborhood of Buena Vista Park.  Offering 3 + bedrooms, 2 1/5 baths, this thoroughly renovated home features a modern open floor plan, 2 patios, hardwood floors, high ceilings, 2 fireplaces, recessed lighting and custom built-ins.  The chef’s kitchen includes custom millwork walnut cabinetry, Thermador professional grade stainless steel appliances, Carrera marble countertops and center-island with wine refrigerator.  Designer baths are clad in porcelain tile, Caesarstone and Carrera marble with custom lighting.  Double parlor master suite has amazing downtown views, a gas fireplace and en-suite bath with soaking tub and glass surround walk-in shower. Two additional bedrooms, media room and a family great room complete the interior living spaces.  Laundry hook-ups, security system, centralized audio system and two-car tandem garage combine all the conveniences for today’s modern home.  Centrally located, Buena Vista Park is within walking distance to the Castro, Cole Valley and Haight Ashbury neighborhoods. Restaurants, cafes, groceries and parks are all within immediate distance including access to many of the cities transportation veins with access to downtown or freeways.

www.alpineviewhome.com

723 Taylor is a boutique collection of residences, featuring 1 bedroom, 2 bedroom and two story sky pent-homes. An iconic glass and aluminum style envelopes the building- bay windows allow for an abundance of natural light offering city views or the beautifully appointed Zen garden. With only two residences per floor, owners share a sense of privacy in the center of the city. These stylish luxury homes incorporate the finest materials, offer well orchestrated floor plans and are timeless in modern design.

Building Features:

- Distinctive modern architectural style

- Elevator building comprised of 12 residences

- Steel and concrete construction

- Stylish lobby clad in cedar wood, lava stone and Italian porcelain tile

- Zen- inspired courtyard in the building’s common area

Home Features:

- Floor-to-ceiling windows

- White oak pearl-finish hardwood floors

- Satin-etched translucent glass walls

- Open-plan design in living/dining area

- Italian gray oak kitchen cabinetry

- Italian porcelain-tiled backsplash and under cabinet lighting in kitchen

- Top-of-the-line European, stainless steel kitchen appliances: Bosch dishwasher, Smeg gas cooktop and integrated Liebherr refrigerator/freezer
- Stone slab countertops

- Spa-style bathrooms featuring Italian, gray oak cabinetry and procelain tile

- Oversized walk-in rain-showers, glass enclosures, chrome fixtures and designer lighting

- Recessed and track lighting

- Installed surround-sound speakers, CAT5 wiring and plasma installation-ready

- Security system and lobby intercom

- Duravit, Grohe, Toto and Hansgrohe chrome fixtures throughout

- Washer/dryer hookups